Atmospheric CO2 Concentration Research Articles

Has nitrogen availability decreased over much of the land surface in the past century? A model-based analysis

AbstractA recent publication (Mason et al. in Science 376:261, 2022a) suggested that nitrogen (N) availability has declined as a consequence of multiple ongoing components of anthropogenic global change. This suggestion is controversial, because human alteration of the global N cycle is substantial and has driven much-increased fixation of N globally. We used a simple model that has been validated across a climate gradient in Hawai ‘i to test the possibility of a widespread decline in N availability, the evidence supporting it, and the possible mechanisms underlying it. This analysis showed that a decrease in δ15N is not sufficient evidence for a decline in N availability, because δ15N in ecosystems reflects both the isotope ratios in inputs of N to the ecosystem AND fractionation of N isotopes as N cycles, with enrichment of the residual N in the ecosystem caused by greater losses of N by the fractionating pathways that are more important in N-rich sites. However, there is other evidence for declining N availability that is independent of 15N and that suggests a widespread decline in N availability. We evaluated whether and how components of anthropogenic global change could cause declining N availability. Earlier work had demonstrated that both increases in the variability of precipitation due to climate change and ecosystem-level disturbance could drive uncontrollable losses of N that reduce N availability and could cause persistent N limitation at equilibrium. Here we modelled climate-change-driven increases in temperature and increasing atmospheric concentrations of CO2. We show that increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations can drive non-equilibrium decreases in N availability and cause the development of N limitation, while the effects of increased temperature appear to be relatively small and short-lived. These environmental changes may cause reductions in N availability over the vast areas of Earth that are not affected by high rates of atmospheric deposition and/or N enrichment associated with urban and agricultural land use.

Highly stratified mid-Pliocene Southern Ocean in PlioMIP2

Abstract. During the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP; 3.264–3.025 Ma), atmospheric CO2 concentrations were approximately 400 ppm, and the Antarctic Ice Sheet was substantially reduced compared to today. Antarctica is surrounded by the Southern Ocean, which plays a crucial role in the global oceanic circulation and climate regulation. Using results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP2), we investigate Southern Ocean conditions during the mPWP with respect to the pre-industrial period. We find that the mean sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the Southern Ocean is 2.8 °C, while global mean SST warming is 2.4 °C. The enhanced warming is strongly tied to a dramatic decrease in sea ice cover over the mPWP Southern Ocean. We also see a freshening of the ocean (sub)surface, driven by an increase in precipitation over the Southern Ocean and Antarctica. The warmer and fresher surface leads to a highly stratified Southern Ocean that can be related to weakening of the deep abyssal overturning circulation. Sensitivity simulations show that the decrease in sea ice cover and enhanced warming is largely a consequence of the reduction in the Antarctic Ice Sheet. In addition, the mPWP geographic boundary conditions are responsible for approximately half of the increase in mPWP SST warming, sea ice loss, precipitation, and stratification increase over the Southern Ocean. From these results, we conclude that a strongly reduced Antarctic Ice Sheet during the mPWP has a substantial influence on the state of the Southern Ocean and exacerbates the changes that are induced by a higher CO2 concentration alone. This is relevant for the long-term future of the Southern Ocean, as we expect melting of the western Antarctic Ice Sheet in the future, an effect that is not currently taken into account in future projections by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) ensembles.

Regional potential of coastal ocean alkalinisation with olivine within 100 years

Abstract The spreading of crushed olivine-rich rocks in coastal seas to accelerate weathering reactions sequesters atmospheric CO2 and reduces atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Their weathering rates depend on different factors, including temperature and the reaction surface area. Therefore, this study investigates the variations in olivine-based enhanced weathering rates across 13 regional coasts worldwide. In addition, it assesses the CO2 sequestration within 100 years and evaluates the maximum net-sequestration potential based on varying environmental conditions. Simulations were conducted using the geochemical thermodynamic equilibrium modeling software PHREEQC. A sensitivity analysis was performed, exploring various combinations of influencing parameters, including grain size, seawater temperature, and chemistry. The findings reveal significant variation in CO2 sequestration, ranging from 0.13 to 0.94 metric tons (t) of CO2 per ton of distributed olivine-rich rocks over 100 years. Warmer coastal regions exhibit higher CO2 sequestration capacities than temperate regions, with a difference of 0.4 t CO2/ t olivine distributed. Sensitivity analysis shows that smaller grain sizes (10 µm) exhibit higher net CO2 sequestration rates (0.87 t/t) in olivine-based enhanced weathering across all conditions, attributed to their larger reactive surface area. However, in warmer seawater temperatures, olivine with slightly larger grain sizes (50 and 100 µm) displays still larger net CO2 removal rates (0.97 and 0.92 t/t), optimizing the efficiency of CO2 sequestration while reducing grinding energy requirements. While relying on a simplified sensitivity analysis that does not capture the full complexity of real-world environmental dynamics, this study contributes to understanding the variability and optimization of enhanced weathering for CO2 sequestration, supporting its potential as a sustainable CO2 removal strategy.

CO2 enrichment accelerates alpine plant growth via increasing water-use efficiency

Phenological changes in global vegetation are often attributed to climate warming. However, climate warming and elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration (eCO2) are two co-occurring global change factors, and how eCO2 would affect vegetation phenology has received less attention. The partial pressure of atmospheric CO2 on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is lower than that in regions of lower altitudes. Consequently, the growth and phenology of alpine plants in this region could be more sensitive to eCO2, but this hypothesis is not yet supported by empirical evidence. Here we explored the effect of eCO2 on plant phenology (including phenophases of green-up, budding, and flowering) through a 5-year field manipulation experiment in a high-altitude (4600 m above sea level) alpine grassland on the TP. Our results showed that eCO2 significantly advanced the spring phenology of an early-flowering species (Kobresia pygmaea), while it had no impact on the phenology of two mid-flowering species (Potentilla saundersiana and Potentilla cuneata). Compared to other low-altitude regions, plant phenology on the TP underwent greater alterations under eCO2, which supports our hypothesis that the growth of high-altitude plants is more sensitive to eCO2. Furthermore, we found that eCO2 significantly reduced the overlapping of flowering between contrasting plant species, mainly due to the phenological advancement of the K. pygmaea induced by eCO2. The observed advancement of the spring phenology in K. pygmaea under eCO2 was associated with increasing ecosystem water-use efficiency (WUE), thereby advancing its subsequent phenological development, such as budding and flowering. Our findings provide experimental evidence that atmospheric CO2 enrichment can accelerate plant growth processes in high-altitude regions, and suggest that large-scale model simulations should consider the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration on plant growth and phenology.

Photothermal CO2 Catalysis toward the Synthesis of Solar Fuel: From Material and Reactor Engineering to Techno-Economic Analysis.

Carbon dioxide (CO2), a member of greenhouse gases, contributes significantly to maintaining a tolerable environment for all living species. However, with the development of modern society and the utilization of fossil fuels, the concentration of atmospheric CO2 has increased to 400ppm, resulting in a serious greenhouse effect. Thus, converting CO2 into valuable chemicals is highly desired, especially with renewable solar energy, which shows great potential with the manner of photothermal catalysis. In this review, recent advancements in photothermal CO2 conversion are discussed, including the design of catalysts, analysis of mechanisms, engineering of reactors, and the corresponding techno-economic analysis. A guideline for future investigation and the anthropogenic carbon cycle are provided.

An Approach for Assessing Human Respiration CO2 Emissions Using Radiocarbon Measurements and Bottom‐Up Data Sets

AbstractCarbon dioxide (CO2) is a major greenhouse gas in the atmosphere and has large impacts on climate change. Its fossil fuel (CO2ff) and biogenic (CO2bio) sources are well investigated, while CO2 emissions from human respiration (CO2hr), a subset of CO2bio, have received less attention. Especially as a source of carbon emissions in densely populated megacities, the role of CO2hr emissions in the carbon cycles was largely neglected. Here we fully characterize the respiratory CO2 emission rates (CERs) of Chinese people for the first time. Using the example of the megacity Beijing in China, we estimate the CO2hr emissions and present a method for quantifying its fraction in the atmospheric CO2 based on radiocarbon (14C) measurements and inventory data sets. The results show that males and females have similar age trends in CERs, but the gender difference is significant, especially between the ages of 20 and 60, the average CERs was 33% higher for males than for females (P < 0.05). The CO2hr emissions were about 22.2 ± 0.6 kt CO2 per day, which was equivalent to 7.5% of daily CO2ff emissions in winter. The proportion is likely to be twice in summer due to the seasonal fluctuations of fossil fuel emissions. More importantly, the respiratory emissions could increase atmospheric CO2 concentration by about 2 ppm, accounting for 14% ± 6% of average CO2bio concentration in winter. This study highlights the importance of human respiration in carbon emissions in megacities and has implications for a better understanding of the regional carbon budget.

Ice sheet and precession controlled subarctic Pacific productivity and upwelling over the last 550,000 years

The polar oceans play a vital role in regulating atmospheric CO2 concentrations (pCO2) during the Pleistocene glacial cycles. However, despite being the largest modern reservoir of respired carbon, the impact of the subarctic Pacific remains poorly understood due to limited records. Here, we present high-resolution, 230Th-normalized export productivity records from the subarctic northwestern Pacific covering the last five glacial cycles. Our records display pronounced, glacial-interglacial cyclicity superimposed with precessional-driven variability, with warm interglacial climate and high boreal summer insolation providing favorable conditions to sustain upwelling of nutrient-rich subsurface waters and hence increased export productivity. Our transient model simulations consistently show that ice sheets and to a lesser degree, precession are the main drivers that control the strength and latitudinal position of the westerlies. Enhanced upwelling of nutrient/carbon-rich water caused by the intensification and poleward migration of the northern westerlies during warmer climate intervals would have led to the release of previously sequestered CO2 from the subarctic Pacific to the atmosphere. Our results also highlight the significant role of the subarctic Pacific in modulating pCO2 changes during the Pleistocene climate cycles, especially on precession timescale ( ~ 20 kyr).

Dependency of the impacts of geoengineering on the stratospheric sulfur injection strategy – Part 2: How changes in the hydrological cycle depend on the injection rate and model used

Abstract. This is the second of two papers in which we study the dependency of the impacts of stratospheric sulfur injections on the model and injection strategy used. Here, aerosol optical properties from simulated stratospheric aerosol injections using two aerosol models (modal scheme M7 and sectional scheme SALSA), as described in Part 1 (Laakso et al., 2022), are implemented consistently into the EC-Earth, MPI-ESM and CESM Earth system models (ESMs) to simulate the climate impacts of different injection rates ranging from 2 to 100 Tg(S) yr−1. Two sets of simulations were run with the three ESMs: (1) regression simulations, in which an abrupt change in CO2 concentration or stratospheric aerosols over pre-industrial conditions was applied to quantify global mean fast temperature-independent climate responses and quasi-linear dependence on temperature, and (2) equilibrium simulations, in which radiative forcing of aerosol injections with various magnitudes compensated for the corresponding radiative forcing of CO2 enhancement to study the dependence of precipitation on the injection magnitude. The latter also allow one to explore the regional climatic responses. Large differences in SALSA- and M7-simulated radiative forcing in Part 1 translated into large differences in the estimated surface temperature and precipitation changes in ESM simulations; for example, an injection rate of 20 Tg(S) yr−1 in CESM using M7-simulated aerosols led to only 2.2 K global mean cooling, while EC-Earth–SALSA combination produced a 5.2 K change. In equilibrium simulations, where aerosol injections were utilized to offset the radiative forcing caused by an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 500 ppm, the decrease in global mean precipitation varied among models, ranging from −0.7 % to −2.4 % compared with the pre-industrial climate. These precipitation changes can be explained by the fast precipitation response due to radiation changes caused by the stratospheric aerosols and CO2, as the global mean fast precipitation response is shown to be negatively correlated with global mean atmospheric absorption. Our study shows that estimating the impact of stratospheric aerosol injection on climate is not straightforward. This is because the simulated capability of the sulfate layer to reflect solar radiation and absorb long-wave radiation is sensitive to the injection rate as well as the aerosol model used to simulate the aerosol field. These findings emphasize the necessity for precise simulation of aerosol microphysics to accurately estimate the climate impacts of stratospheric sulfur intervention. This study also reveals gaps in our understanding and uncertainties that still exist related to these controversial techniques.

Poly(ionic liquid)-based aerogels for continuous-flow CO2 upcycling

The atmospheric concentration of CO2 is rising at an alarming pace, creating a pressing need for new and sustainable materials capable of capture and conversion. Poly(ionic liquid)s (PILs) are particularly effective catalysts for processes at or near atmospheric pressure. PILs industrial application poses challenges due to the low porosity of PIL, the limited batch conversion capacity, and the difficulties in reuse. To overcome these limitations, we herein propose the use of AEROPILs catalysts obtained from the integration of PILs in chitosan-based aerogels. These cost-effective highly porous materials have unique and tuneable porous properties making them not only ideal sustainable CO2 sorbents but also promising heterogeneous catalysts. While AEROPILs show moderate yields for CO2 conversion in batch mode, high catalytic activity was achieved when AEROPILs were used to catalyse the CO2 cycloaddition reaction to epoxides in packed-bed reactors operated under continuous flow. The catalytic activity and stability were maintained over 60 h without activity loss, and high productivity (space-time yield of 21.18 gprod h−1 L−1). This research reveals the pioneering use of AEROPILs to efficiently upcycle CO2 into cyclic carbonate under a continuous flow setup.

If Some Critical Regions Achieve Carbon Neutrality, How Will the Global Atmospheric CO2 Concentration Change?

Due to anthropogenic emissions, the global CO2 concentration increases at a rate of approximately 2 ppm per year. With over 130 countries and regions committing to carbon neutrality goals and continuously reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions, understanding how atmospheric CO2 concentrations will change globally and in other regions has become an intriguing question. Examining different regions’ efforts to reduce anthropogenic CO2 emissions through atmospheric CO2 observations is also meaningful. We used prior and posterior fluxes to drive the TM5 model. The posterior fluxes were based on the China Carbon Monitoring, Verification and Support System for Global (CCMVS-G), which assimilated the atmospheric CO2 concentration data from ground-based observation and satellite observation. We found that the CO2 concentration obtained using the posterior fluxes was more in line with the actual situation. Then, we presented some experiments to estimate how global and regional CO2 concentrations would change if certain key regions and the whole world achieved net zero emissions of anthropogenic CO2. After removing carbon fluxes from China, North America, and Europe, global CO2 concentrations decreased by around 0.58 ppm, 0.22 ppm, and 0.10 ppm, respectively. The most significant decrease occurred in the regions where fluxes were removed, followed by other areas at the same latitude affected by westerly winds. This indicates that fossil fuel flux is the main factor affecting CO2 concentrations, and that meteorological-driven transportation also significantly impacts CO2 concentrations. Most importantly, using this method, it is possible to quantitatively estimate the impact of achieving carbon neutrality in one region on CO2 concentrations in local regions as well as globally.

Nutrient remobilization and C:N:P stoichiometry in response to elevated CO2 and low phosphorus availability in rice cultivars introgressed with and without Pup1

The continuously rising atmospheric CO2 concentration potentially increase plant growth through stimulating C metabolism; however, plant C:N:P stoichiometry in response to elevated CO2 (eCO2) under low P stress remains largely unknown. We investigated the combined effect of eCO2 and low phosphorus on growth, yield, C:N:P stoichiometry, and remobilization in rice cv. Kasalath (aus type), IR64 (a mega rice variety), and IR64-Pup1 (Pup1 QTL introgressed IR64). In response to eCO2 and low P, the C accumulation increased significantly (particularly at anthesis stage) while N and P concentration decreased leading to higher C:N and C:P ratios in all plant components (leaf, sheath, stem, and grain) than ambient CO2. The remobilization efficiencies of N and P were also reduced under low P with eCO2 as compared to control conditions. Among cultivars, the combined effect of eCO2 and low P was greater in IR64-Pup1 and produced higher biomass and grain yield as compared to IR64. However, IR64-Pup1 exhibited a lower N but higher P concentration than IR64, indicating that the Pup1 QTL improved P uptake but did not influence N uptake. Our study suggests that the P availability along with eCO2 would alter the C:N:P ratios due to their differential partitioning, thereby affecting growth and yield.

Evaluating the potential of iron-based interventions in methane reduction and climate mitigation

Keeping global surface temperatures below international climate targets will require substantial measures to control atmospheric CO2 and CH4 concentrations. Recent studies have focused on interventions to decrease CH4 through enhanced atmospheric oxidation. Here for the first time using a set of models, we evaluate the effect of adding iron aerosols to the atmosphere to enhance molecular chlorine production, and thus enhance the atmospheric oxidation of methane and reduce its concentration. Using different iron emission sensitivity scenarios, we examine the potential role and impact of enhanced iron emissions on direct interactions with solar radiation, and on the chemical and radiative response of methane. Our results show that the impact of iron emissions on CH4 depends sensitively on the location of the iron emissions. In all emission regions there is a threshold in the amount of iron that must be added to remove methane. Below this threshold CH4 increases. Even once that threshold is reached, the iron-aerosol driven chlorine-enhanced impacts on climate are complex. The radiative forcing of both methane and ozone are decreased in the most efficient regions but the direct effect due to the addition of absorbing iron aerosols tends to warm the planet. Adding any anthropogenic aerosol may also cool the planet due to aerosol cloud interactions, although these are very uncertain, and here we focus on the unique properties of adding iron aerosols. If the added emissions have a similar distribution as current shipping emissions, our study shows that the amount of iron aerosols that must be added before methane decreases is 2.5 times the current shipping emissions of iron aerosols, or 6 Tg Fe yr−1 in the most ideal case examined here. Our study suggests that the photoactive fraction of iron aerosols is a key variable controlling the impact of iron additions and poorly understood. More studies of the sensitivity of when, where and how iron aerosols are added should be conducted. Before seriously considering this method, additional impacts on the atmospheric chemistry, climate, environmental impacts and air pollution should be carefully assessed in future studies since they are likely to be important.

Orbital- and millennial-scale Asian winter monsoon variability across the Pliocene–Pleistocene glacial intensification

Intensification of northern hemisphere glaciation (iNHG), ~2.7 million years ago (Ma), led to establishment of the Pleistocene to present-day bipolar icehouse state. Here we document evolution of orbital- and millennial-scale Asian winter monsoon (AWM) variability across the iNHG using a palaeomagnetically dated centennial-resolution grain size record between 3.6 and 1.9 Ma from a previously undescribed loess-palaeosol/red clay section on the central Chinese Loess Plateau. We find that the late Pliocene–early Pleistocene AWM was characterized by combined 41-kyr and ~100-kyr cycles, in response to ice volume and atmospheric CO2 forcing. Northern hemisphere ice sheet expansion, which was accompanied by an atmospheric CO2 concentration decline, substantially increased glacial AWM intensity  and its orbitally oscillating amplitudes across the iNHG. Superposed on orbital variability, we find that millennial AWM intensity fluctuations persisted during both the warmer (higher-CO2) late Pliocene and colder (lower-CO2) early Pleistocene, in response to both external astronomical forcing and internal climate dynamics.

Development of an autonomous on-site dissolved inorganic carbon analyzer using conductometric detection

BackgroundThe increase in anthropogenic CO2 concentrations in the Earth's atmosphere since the industrial revolution has resulted in an increased uptake of CO2 by the oceans, leading to ocean acidification. Dissolved Inorganic Carbon (DIC) is one of the key variables to characterize the seawater carbonate system. High quality DIC observations at a high spatial-temporal resolution is required to improve our understanding of the marine carbonate system. To meet the requirements, autonomous DIC analyzers are needed which offer a high sampling frequency, are cost-effective and have a low reagent and power consumption. ResultsWe present the development and validation of a novel analyzer for autonomous measurements of DIC in seawater using conductometric detection. The analyzer employs a gas diffusion sequential injection approach in a “Tube In A Tube” configuration that facilitates diffusion of gaseous CO2 from an acidified sample through a gas permeable membrane into a stream of an alkaline solution. The change in conductivity in the alkaline medium is proportional to the DIC concentration of the sample and is measured using a detection cell constructed of 4 hollow brass electrodes. Physical and chemical optimizations of the analyzer yielded a sampling frequency of 4 samples h−1 using sub mL reagent volumes for each measurement. Temperature and salinity effects on DIC measurements were mathematically corrected to increase accuracy. Analytical precision of ±4.9 μmol kg−1 and ±9.7 μmol kg−1 were achieved from measurements of a DIC reference material in the laboratory and during a field deployment in the southwest Baltic Sea, respectively. SignificanceThis study describes a simple, cost-effective, autonomous, on-site benchtop DIC analyzer capable of measuring DIC in seawater at a high temporal resolution as a step towards an underwater DIC sensor. The analyzer is able to measure a wide range of DIC concentrations in both fresh and marine waters. The achieved accuracy and precision offer an excellent opportunity to employ the analyzer for ocean acidification studies and CO2 leakage detection in the context of Carbon Capture and Storage operations.

Dual-Tuning Azole-Based Ionic Liquids for Reversible CO2 Capture from Ambient Air.

A strategy of tuning azole-based ionic liquids for reversible CO2 capture from ambient air was reported. Through tuning the basicity of anion as well as the type of cation, an ideal azole-based ionic liquid with both high CO2 capacity and excellent stability was synthesized, which exhibited a highest single-component isotherm uptake of 2.17 mmol/g at the atmospheric CO2 concentration of 0.4 mbar at 30 °C, even in the presence of water. The bound CO2 can be released by relatively mild heating of the IL-CO2 at 80 °C, which makes it promising for energy-efficient CO2 desorption and sorbent regeneration, leading to excellent reversibility. To the best of our knowledge, these azole-based ionic liquids are superior to other adsorbent materials for direct air capture due to their dual-tunable properties and high CO2 capture efficiency, offering a new prospect for efficient and reversible direct air capture technologies.

Breathing Planet Earth: Analysis of Keeling’s Data on CO2 and O2 with Respiratory Quotient (RQ), Part II: Energy-Based Global RQ and CO2 Budget

For breathing humans, the respiratory quotient (RQ = CO2 moles released/O2 mols consumed) ranges from 0.7 to 1.0. In Part I, the literature on the RQ was reviewed and Keeling’s data on atmospheric CO2 and O2 concentrations (1991–2018) were used in the estimation of the global RQ as 0.47. A new interpretation of RQGlob is provided in Part II by treating the planet as a “Hypothetical Biological system (HBS)”. The CO2 and O2 balance equations are adopted for estimating (i) energy-based RQGlob(En) and (ii) the CO2 distribution in GT/year and % of CO2 captured by the atmosphere, land, and ocean. The key findings are as follows: (i) The RQGlob(En) is estimated as 0.35 and is relatively constant from 1991 to 2020. The use of RQGlob(En) enables the estimation of CO2 added to the atmosphere from the knowledge of annual fossil fuel (FF) energy data; (ii) The RQ method for the CO2 budget is validated by comparing the annual CO2 distribution results with results from more detailed models; (iii) Explicit relations are presented for CO2 sink in the atmosphere, land, and ocean biomasses, and storage in ocean water from the knowledge of curve fit constants of Keeling’s curves and the RQ of FF and biomasses; (iv) The rate of global average temperature rise (0.27 °C/decade) is predicted using RQGlob,(En) and the annual energy release rate and compared with the literature data; and (v) Earth’s mass loss in GT and O2 in the atmosphere are predicted by extrapolating the curve fit to the year 3700. The effect of RQGlob and RQFF on the econometry and policy issues is briefly discussed.

Carbon dioxide enrichment affected flower numbers transiently and increased successful post-pollination development stably but without altering final acorn production in mature pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.)

Acorn production in oak (Quercus spp.) shows considerable inter-annual variation, known as masting, which provides a natural defence against seed predators but a highly-variable supply of acorns for uses such as in commercial tree planting each year. Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases have been very widely reported to influence plant growth and seed or fruit size and quantity via the ‘fertilisation effect’ that leads to enhanced photosynthesis. To examine if acorn production in mature woodland communities will be affected by further increase in CO2, the contents of litter traps from a Free Air Carbon Enrichment (FACE) experiment in deciduous woodland in central England were analysed for numbers of flowers and acorns of pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) at different stages of development and their predation levels under ambient and elevated CO2 concentrations. Inter-annual variation in acorn numbers was considerable and cyclical between 2015 and 2021, with the greatest numbers of mature acorns in 2015, 2017 and 2020 but almost none in 2018. The numbers of flowers, enlarged cups, immature acorns, empty acorn cups, and galls in the litter traps also varied amongst years; comparatively high numbers of enlarged cups were recorded in 2018, suggesting Q. robur at this site is a fruit maturation masting species (i.e., the extent of abortion of pollinated flowers during acorn development affects mature acorn numbers greatly). Raising the atmospheric CO2 concentration by 150 μL L−1, from early 2017, increased the numbers of immature acorns, and all acorn evidence (empty cups + immature acorns + mature acorns) detected in the litter traps compared to ambient controls by 2021, but did not consistently affect the numbers of flowers, enlarged cups, empty cups, or mature acorns. The number of flowers in the elevated CO2 plots’ litter traps was greater in 2018 than 2017, one year after CO2 enrichment began, whereas numbers declined in ambient plots. Enrichment with CO2 also increased the number of oak knopper galls (Andricus quercuscalicis Burgsdorf). We conclude that elevated CO2 increased the occurrence of acorns developing from flowers, but the putative benefit to mature acorn numbers may have been hidden by excessive pre- and/or post-dispersal predation. There was no evidence that elevated CO2 altered masting behaviour.

Assessing the impact of global carbon dioxide changes on atmospheric fluctuations in Iran through satellite data analysis

Abstract This study aimed to examine how global CO2 changes affect atmospheric CO2 (XCO2) concentrations in Iran from 2015 to 2020. XCO2 data from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) satellite and CO2 surface flux data from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service were analyzed. Monthly and annual XCO2 and surface flux values were compared. Over the 6 years, XCO2 in Iran increased steadily by 12.66 ppm, mirroring global rises. However, Iran's CO2 surface flux decreased, with slight increases in anthropogenic emissions but decreased natural and total fluxes. Monthly patterns of XCO2 and surface flux exhibited variations, with XCO2 reaching its zenith in spring and dipping to its lowest point during summer, while surface flux attained its peak during the summer months. The results reveal a significant discrepancy between Iran's surface CO2 flux and atmospheric XCO2 trends. While Iran's anthropogenic emissions increased barely from 2015–2020, its natural and total CO2 fluxes decreased. However, XCO2 increased steadily over this period, indicating the dominant impact of global rather than local factors on Iran's CO2 levels. The research emphasizes the critical need for a coordinated international effort, utilizing satellite monitoring data, to implement science-based policies that mitigate escalating global CO2 emissions. Curbing worldwide greenhouse gas.

XCO2 Super-Resolution Reconstruction Based on Spatial Extreme Random Trees

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is currently the most harmful greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Obtaining long-term, high-resolution atmospheric column CO2 concentration (XCO2) datasets is of great practical significance for mitigating the greenhouse effect, identifying and controlling carbon emission sources, and achieving carbon cycle management. However, mainstream satellite observations provide XCO2 datasets with coarse spatial resolution, which is insufficient to support the needs of higher-precision research. To address this gap, in this study, we integrate spatial information with the extreme random trees model and develop a new machine learning model called spatial extreme random trees (SExtraTrees) to reconstruct a 1 km spatial resolution XCO2 dataset for China from 2016 to 2020. The results indicate that the predictive ability of spatial extreme random trees is more stable and has higher fitting accuracy compared to other methods. Overall, XCO2 in China shows an increasing trend year by year, with the spatial distribution revealing significantly higher XCO2 levels in eastern coastal regions compared to western inland areas. The contributions of this study are primarily in the following areas: (1) Considering the spatial heterogeneity of XCO2 and combining spatial features with the advantages of machine learning, we construct the spatial extreme random trees model, which is verified to have high predictive accuracy. (2) Using the spatial extreme random trees model, we reconstruct high-resolution XCO2 datasets for China from 2016 to 2020, providing data support for carbon emission reduction and related decision making. (3) Based on the generated dataset, we analyze the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of XCO2 in China, thereby improving emission reduction policies and sustainable development measures.

China's vegetation restoration programs accelerated vegetation greening on the Loess Plateau

The vegetation greening on the Loess Plateau, China, over recent decades, has been primarily driven by a series of vegetation restoration programs (VRPs) and other natural environmental changes (including climate change, rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, and nitrogen deposition, etc.). However, accurate determination of the contributions of natural environmental change and the VRPs to this greening has been challenging due to the lack of the exact time of policy implementation in different areas. Herein, we extracted the starting time of greening (SOG) from different sources of remote sensing data and used it as the starting time of the VRPs. Then, we employed a difference-in-differences (DID) method to ascertain the relative contributions of the VRPs on the observed vegetation greening. Results showed that the contribution of the VRPs to vegetation greening on the Loess Plateau was 23.8–35.8 %, with a greater contribution potentially originating from natural environmental factors. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of the complex relationships among vegetation restoration policies and climate change, and offer a platform to quantify the climate effects on vegetation greening.